US Election Polls: Who’s Leading—Harris or Trump?

On November 5, voters in the United States will choose their next president. What started as a repeat of the 2020 election changed in July when President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Now, the main question is: will Donald Trump win a second term, or will Kamala Harris become the first woman president of the U.S.?

With the election coming soon, polls and public opinion are being closely watched to see how the campaigns are affecting the race.

Who Won the Debate?

On September 10, more than 67 million people watched Kamala Harris and Donald Trump debate in Pennsylvania. The polls show that many people thought Harris performed better, but opinions differ slightly depending on the poll.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters found that 53% thought Harris won, while 24% said Trump won. This poll also showed Harris had a 47% to 42% lead over Trump, a small increase from August when she led 45% to 41%.

A YouGov poll of 1,400 U.S. adults had similar results, with 55% saying Harris won and 25% choosing Trump. Despite Harris’s debate win, there was no major change in voter intentions, with Harris leading 46% to Trump’s 45%.

A Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters showed Harris holding a 50% to 45% lead, with Trump dropping one point from previous polls.

Though many viewers thought Harris won the debate, it’s uncertain if this will change many voters’ minds, as most people already know who they support.

National Polls: Who’s Ahead?

Before Biden dropped out, many polls showed him behind Trump. When Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate, she also started behind. But after hitting the campaign trail, Harris has taken a slight lead in national polls.

These polls show Harris slightly ahead of Trump, but national polls don’t always predict the winner since the U.S. uses the Electoral College system. The outcome often depends on who wins key battleground states.

In important battleground states, polls are very close, with less than one percentage point separating Harris and Trump in some areas. Pennsylvania, with the most electoral votes, could play a big role in deciding the winner.

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, flipping them from the Democrats. Biden won them back in 2020, and now Harris needs to do the same to win this year.

When Biden quit the race, he was about five points behind Trump in these battleground states. Since Harris took over, the race has tightened, making these states key to the election result.

The polling averages are created by the website 538, which collects data from many polling companies. They make sure only polls that meet certain standards, like transparency about how they were conducted, are included in their averages.

Currently, the polls show a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both nationally and in battleground states. But when the race is this tight, predicting the winner is hard.

In 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated support for Trump. Polling companies have since made changes to fix these issues, but it’s still difficult to predict things like voter turnout.

As November 5 approaches, both candidates are focused on the few key states that could decide the next president.