What Trump’s Return Might Mean for Africa: Deals Over Diplomacy

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term, one thing seems certain: he’ll likely continue to favor quick deals over slow, careful diplomacy. This style could bring both opportunities and risks for Africa.

Under Obama, the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) worked together to fund African peacekeeping missions, aiming to prevent conflicts and maintain peace across the continent. However, during Trump’s first term, this plan was set aside, with many missions cut back or shut down. The Biden administration didn’t reverse this trend.

Direct Deals Instead of Multilateral Cooperation

Some African leaders appreciated Trump’s results-focused approach. In the Middle East and Africa, Trump often preferred to make direct deals rather than work through large international agreements. His support for the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab nations, was a key example.

Trump also supported Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco’s recognition of Israel, showing his tendency to make straightforward trades.

In Africa, this approach was evident in Trump’s handling of a dispute over the Nile River between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt asked Trump’s administration to get involved, and the U.S. pressured Ethiopia by suspending aid and even suggesting that Egypt might “blow up” the dam if no deal was reached.

This kind of intervention is unusual in diplomacy but reflects Trump’s preference for taking a side and pushing for fast solutions.

One of Africa’s most urgent conflicts today is in Sudan, where a long civil war has displaced millions and caused severe hardship. Some of Trump’s closest allies in the Middle East, like the UAE and Egypt, are involved on opposite sides of this conflict, making it difficult to resolve.

For these countries, Sudan’s issues are part of their broader regional interests, and peace in Sudan is often not their main concern.

In Ethiopia, tensions with Egypt over water resources remain high. Both countries rely on support from allies like the UAE, which could complicate efforts to stabilize the region if Trump’s approach favors alliance-driven deals rather than peace initiatives.

U.S. Military Presence in Africa

During his first term, Trump showed little interest in keeping a large U.S. military presence in Africa, pulling troops from Somalia before Biden reversed the decision. It’s unlikely Trump will prioritize U.S. military action against militant groups unless there’s an incident involving American lives.

His administration may instead rely on allies or private military groups to handle security issues.

West Africa, which is experiencing a rise in militant groups and military coups, could also be affected if Trump’s focus remains on making deals with leaders rather than enforcing democratic principles.