Nvidia Earnings Surpass Forecasts by 10% Over Two Years

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is once again in the spotlight as it prepares to release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, with Wall Street closely watching whether the chip giant can continue its near-perfect streak of outperforming expectations.

Over the past two years, Nvidia has consistently exceeded market forecasts. According to Bloomberg data, the company has topped earnings per share (EPS) estimates by an average of 9.8% across the last eight quarters, while its revenue has surpassed projections by an average of 8.9%.

In contrast, the broader S&P 500 posted average earnings and sales beats of 5% and 1.3%, respectively, over the same period.

Nvidia’s only miss in this streak occurred during the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025. Even then, revenue still came in above projections — a testament to the company’s robust demand, especially for its AI-related hardware.

On Tuesday, Nvidia shares rose more than 3% and held steady on Wednesday as investors anticipated another strong earnings report. Analysts from Bank of America and Stifel maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Stifel’s Ruben Roy and BofA’s Vivek Arya project a modest beat for the April quarter, citing resilient demand for Nvidia’s Hopper (H200) and newly ramping Blackwell (GB200) chips. This demand is expected to offset potential losses from U.S. export restrictions affecting Nvidia’s H20 chips in China.

For the April quarter, Wall Street expects Nvidia to post an adjusted EPS of $0.88 on revenue of $43.3 billion, up sharply from $0.61 EPS on $26 billion in revenue for the same period last year.

“We expect largely inline results and outlook despite the negative top-line impact related to recently disclosed H20 restrictions,” Roy wrote in a note to investors, pointing to solid demand for H200 chips and the initial production of GB200 servers, which are equipped with 72 Blackwell GPUs.

Nvidia’s last earnings report in February offered strong numbers, with the company raking in $11 billion in revenue from its AI chip segment alone. Despite these stellar figures, shares dipped 8.5% as Nvidia’s projected gross margin fell below analyst expectations.

The upcoming earnings announcement could trigger further volatility. Options traders tracked by Bloomberg suggest Nvidia’s stock could swing by as much as 7.4% after results are released.

So far, 2025 has been a rocky year for Nvidia’s stock. Shares tumbled in January over concerns that a new, cost-effective AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek could weaken demand. The stock took another hit in April amid renewed trade war tensions during Donald Trump’s re-election campaign.

Still, with a track record of innovation and dominant market share in AI chips, Nvidia appears well-positioned to maintain momentum — assuming it can continue navigating geopolitical risks and market skepticism.

The company is set to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday.