Trump Supporters’ Optimism Drops on Where America’s Headed

Confidence among Donald Trump’s supporters about the country’s direction slipped in September, multiple polls show, reflecting a turbulent month marked by a high-profile killing, a free-speech firestorm, and a federal government shutdown.

At the start of September, 75% of Trump voters told YouGov/Economist the U.S. was on the right track, versus 17% on the wrong track. By month’s end, those figures shifted to 70% and 22%, a net 10-point drop. Gallup recorded a similar slide among Republicans (from 76% optimistic in August to 68% in September).

AP-NORC found the share of Republicans saying the country is headed the wrong way jumped from 29% in June to 51% in September, including a 30-point surge to 61% among Republicans under 45. A Marquette survey likewise showed GOP satisfaction falling from 79% in July to 70% in September.

The mood darkened after a bruising news cycle. Republicans expressed outrage and grief over the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, while the White House drew fire from Democrats after ABC temporarily took Jimmy Kimmel Live! off air following Kimmel’s remarks about the killing, an episode that ignited a backlash over free speech and the FCC’s posture. The month ended with a funding standoff that triggered the first government shutdown in six years.

Concerns about violence grew alongside pessimism. A Quinnipiac poll reported 60% of Republicans believe the U.S. is in a political crisis. YouGov found 67% say political violence is a “very big” problem.

In Marquette’s polling, most Republicans blamed the left for violence (57%), while just 3% pointed to the right; only 39% said heated rhetoric makes violence “much more likely,” compared with 63% of Democrats. Gallup, meanwhile, recorded a rise in mentions of crime/violence as the nation’s top problem (3% to 8%) and a doubling of unity concerns (5% to 10%), with Republicans driving the crime jump and independents the unity spike.

Free speech became a flashpoint. While 62% of Trump voters supported pulling Kimmel’s show, YouGov tracking showed GOP confidence in the state of free expression falling from +44 in May to +21 in September. Only 17% of Republicans agreed that the Trump administration is limiting free speech; 76% rejected that claim.

The shutdown added economic worry: more than half of Republicans (54%) said it would seriously or somewhat affect the country. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found a plurality of Americans would blame Republicans more than Democrats for a shutdown. Still, Republicans were less likely to fault Trump or the party in YouGov’s data (26% and 25%, respectively).

Notably, Trump’s standing within his base held firm. Among Trump voters, his approval dipped only one point in YouGov/Economist’s series, and Newsweek’s tracker showed a slight improvement week-over-week. Democratic pollster Matt McDermott called it a GOP “cult of personality,” arguing loyalty to Trump can coexist with dissatisfaction over rising costs and political dysfunction.

Peter Loge, a political-communication scholar, warned that persistent gloom among Republican voters could boomerang on GOP incumbents: “Most voters want things to work… If voters don’t think things are working, they tend to fire the people in charge.”